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Jul 26

Prediction Contest

Note from Dave: This post is actually a replacement due to the previous Twitter Prediction post being weirdly targeted by spambots.

If you’ve read my series up to this point, you know the pattern being identified should be not only be reproducible, but predictive. So for my 22nd blood test, I decided to have a little fun. Instead of predicting about where it landed myself, I tweeted…


I got three: Raphi Sirt ‏@raphaels7, Richard Morris ‏@khiron, and Jeff Winkler ‏@winkler1. I invited them to a secret page with these instructions:

  1. Review the graph below. It has 21 points plotted in the red line and 22 points plotted in the blue.
  2. Make your best guess as to where the next point will be on the red line.
  3. Tweet a funny sentence about anything that includes:
    1. @DaveKeto
    2. #Predict
    3. (Your predicted number)

Click here for the larger sized graph

prediction_graph

They followed up with these tweets:

Reminder — all these tweets are dated July 7, 2016, the night before my blood test.

To replot the graph with their predictions:

twitter_prediction_tweets

The LDL-C result from my July 8th test just came in Friday and is as follows:

twitter_prediction_ldlc

And thus, here’s the updated graph with the new 283 result plotted on the red line:

twitter_prediction_after

Here’s the close up:

twitter_prediction_after_small

Thus making Jeff Winkler @winkler1 the winner!

If you’re wondering how I could have three total strangers could predict where my cholesterol numbers would be in such a tight range, you haven’t been reading my series! (See Part I, Part II, and Part III)

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Stephen Sivo

Your correlations may be even stronger than you think if you have not corrected for autocorrelation (typical for time series data). You may already be doing this, but if you want to know how, I’ll explain.